ANALYSIS

By Daniel ‘Boss’ Ndambuki

Raila Odinga’s loss in the African Union Commission (AUC) elections can be attributed to a combination of strategic miscalculations, geopolitical dynamics, and diplomatic shortcomings.

While Odinga is a seasoned politician with extensive experience in governance and diplomacy, several key factors worked against his bid.

The first factor is late and superficial lobbying. Winning the AUC position requires years of deeply  cultivated friendships with heads of state. Raila’s engagement with African leaders was perceived as last-minute lobbying rather than a long-term diplomatic relationship.

This created the impression that his interest was more of personal ambition rather than a well-thought-out, long-term continental vision.
Religious Dynamics in African Politics presents the second factor.
A significant number of African countries have a Muslim-majority population.

Given this reality, there was a natural inclination to back a candidate who aligns with their religious and cultural beliefs. Raila, being a non-Muslim, may have faced silent resistance from this bloc, which played a crucial role in the final vote.

Third is Kenya’s Pro-Israel Stance on the Palestinian conflict and Gaza War. Kenya’s strong stance in support of Israel during the Gaza war created a diplomatic storm. Many African nations, particularly in North and West Africa, viewed this as a direct attack on Muslim nations, making it difficult for them to support a Kenyan candidate they view as a supporter of Israel. This stand alienated key allies in a contest where every vote mattered.

The fourth factor is Africa’s Francophone Alliance. Language and colonial ties continue to play a crucial role in African politics.

With a majority of African nations being Francophone, they naturally gravitated towards one of their own. This bloc voting system gave Djibouti’s candidate an upper hand, leaving Raila with limited backing from non-Francophone states.

The fifth factor is purely regional Bloc Politics. African regional organizations, such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), played a crucial role in the election.

Each bloc had internal considerations, with member states feeling obligated to support their own candidates. This fragmented Raila’s potential support, as countries prioritized their regional interests over a Pan-African approach.

Sixth is the failure to engage Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenyatta, Kenya’s former president, enjoys strong personal relationships with both sitting and former African leaders.

By sidelining Uhuru in Raila’s campaign, Kenya lost an influential lobbyist who could have helped navigate the complex political terrain of the AUC elections.

The seventh factor is Kenya’s Tarnished International Relations.
Incidents such as the alleged abduction of Uganda’s Kizza Besigye and Tanzania’s Maria Surugi on Kenyan soil raised concerns about Kenya’s commitment to democratic values and regional cooperation.

These incidents fueled mistrust far and wide and weakened Raila’s image as a unifying leader, further reducing his appeal.

Perception of Kenya as a Continental Threat presents the eighth factor that may have hindered Raila’s success.
Kenya is seen as an economic and diplomatic powerhouse in Africa. Some countries viewed Raila’s potential leadership as an extension of Kenya’s growing influence, which they saw as a threat to their own standing. As a result, some nations opted to block his bid to prevent Nairobi from consolidating more power at the continental level.

The ninth factor is Poor Intelligence and strategic planning for the campaign.
A well-coordinated campaign requires accurate intelligence on the political landscape.

Kenya’s team failed to identify and address key voting blocs’ concerns in time. By the time it became clear that Raila’s support was shaky, it was already too late to reverse the momentum in his favour.

The tenth factor is that Djibouti’s Candidate Had a Stronger AU Reform Agenda.
While Raila’s experience is unquestionable, Djibouti’s candidate appeared to have a more detailed understanding of the African Union’s challenges and a clear roadmap for reform. This gave him credibility among undecided voters who were looking for someone with a strong policy-driven agenda rather than just political experience.

In conclusion, Raila’s loss in the AUC elections was not just about personal weaknesses but rather a combination of missteps in diplomacy, religious and regional politics, and Kenya’s perceived international standing.

Winning such a position requires years of groundwork, strategic alliances, and the right messaging. Moving forward, Kenya will need to reassess its diplomatic approach if it hopes to secure key positions in continental leadership.

Mr.Ndambuki is a political analyst and a former MCA candidate for Mwala/Makutano Ward in Machakos County.