By Martin Masai

Trouble for Wavinya as Party Realignments Tilt Assembly Numbers in Favour of Speaker Kiusya

The High Court in Machakos has refused to block an impeachment motion against Speaker Anne Mwikali Kiusya.

This comes as fortunes for Kiusya, marked by new alliances, a fresh clerk, and intense party whipping have dramatically shifted the numbers in her favour.

In a ruling delivered on September 17,  Lady Justice Rhoda Rutto dismissed Kiusya’s petition challenging the legality of the impeachment motion, saying the matter was “premature and speculative” because the County Assembly had not yet debated or voted on it.

She held that the Assembly must be allowed to “run its course” before the courts can intervene on alleged constitutional breaches.
Effectively, the judge leaves the  push for impeachment to the politicians.
Justice Rutto anchored her decision on Supreme Court precedents, emphasising judicial restraint over legislative processes.

She brushed aside claims that the Deputy Speaker was biased and that the impeachment motion relied on a suspended legal provision, calling the fears “premature” because no debate or hearing had begun.
Her ruling, however, comes at a moment when the political arithmetic in the Assembly has turned sharply.

UDA and Maendeleo Chap Chap have actively whipped their MCAs into Kiusya’s camp, giving the Speaker a bloc of 28 members compared to Governor Wavinya Ndeti’s 31 — still larger but far short of the three-quarter supermajority required to remove a Speaker under current law.

A new Clerk Mr Peter Mbatha — perceived as a neutral professional,and possibly not hostile to the Speaker  — now sits at the Assembly’s administrative helm, further strengthening Kiusya’s position.  And because a 2020 amendment lowering the impeachment threshold to two-thirds remains suspended, the old three-quarter bar applies. Even with all 31 MCAs, the Governor’s camp falls well below the number needed to impeach Kiusya.

The previous Clerk, Dennis Mutui was removed two weeks ago. Mutui, a nephew of Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is accused of operating along with Wavinya allied MCAs.
By declining to interfere, the Court has pushed the showdown squarely into the political arena. Analysts say this forces Governor Ndeti’s side to fight on the floor of the House rather than in court, while giving the Speaker breathing space to consolidate her bloc and neutralise threats to her office.

Legal observers note that the judgment underscores the judiciary’s reluctance to micromanage county assemblies except in cases of clear constitutional violation.

“The Court simply refused to draw the judicial sword prematurely. The numbers are being decided in the Assembly, not the courtroom,” said one Machakos lawyer familiar with the case.
Justice Rutto’s ruling did not tilt the Assembly’s power map; party realignments did. But by upholding the Assembly’s autonomy and forcing the impeachment bid back into the political arena, the High Court has given Speaker Kiusya the space .

She will certainly use the numbers to fight another day.

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